Market Preview Week 1 April

Sunday, March 30, 2008

NzdUsd last week made a last minute drop. The drop was expected but the time it took to move is unexpected. Next week should be a clear direction to some pairs. I will post direction of pairs so that you can make your trade easier

Last minute drop, at the moment its in downtrend mode. Still have some room to go down. Short NzdUsd based on candle stick pattern

This is a slow and steady moving pair. At the moment on thin uptrend. Long UsdChf based on candlestick and grid lines. Do you know that if you monitor UsdChf you can actually catch EurUsd, GbpUsd, AudUsd and NzdUsd trade by going the opposite way.

Last minute drop last week has actually turned EJ from uptrend to downtrend. At the moment I got a short signal and based on grid it would be short @ 157.20 or better.

Good Luck and remember always trade to the direction of trend.

Forex News

Thursday, March 27, 2008

For those of you who trade purely on technical study, you must avoid news hours. During news release, a different kind of traders will enter the market. They are aggressive, fast and well equip. They work in groups and using syndicate trading to force the market to their favour. They enter and leave the market in short period of time taking whatever profit they can. They do not stay in the market.

Compare to us technical small fish, these news traders are much bigger. In order to avoid getting fried, technical small fish must leave the arena when the news traders enter. In order to know when these news trader enter we must know when important news release are made and for that reason I use Forex Factory calendar.

Funny how people try to trade during news hour while I try to avoid them. Look at the calendar and understand when high impact news are released. Pay very close attention to red and orange icon.

Trade Of The Day

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

For today I will choose a slower pair to trade. It is my opinion that NZD/USD is a good pair to short. Based on grid trading, if anyone is reading the signal should be:

short NZD/USD @ 0.8065 or better
Stop loss @ 0.8090 (Minimum)
Take profit at each of the grid lines.

Btw that is my full trading chart. By the end of the lesson you will get ideas how to combine every trading method from each indicators and grid. Its not the system, its the people who use it.

Anyone here got the GJ drop?? I do :D


After a drop off over 200 pips it is my opinion to exit and stay aside. It is now beginning of a new month and first friday of the month holds too much surprise, too much for me anyway. As of now, I have exited all my position and plan to stay aside. If I do enter the market it would be based on RSI swing strategy. Fast in fast out, take what ever you can and stay out.

Back To Basic Part 1 - Lets Get Naked

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

When we are born in this world. We are all born naked. We do not carry money or bond certificate or even Rolex watches. All are born equal. It is what we do when we are growing up made us what we are today. Some are powerful men while others, just a waste of time.

When we start in Forex, most of us started at the same place. A blank chart with candlestick and grid. Simple and clear but because of greed, ambition etc, most of us jump straight to advance system. Advance system with colourful indicators here and there and through all those we forgot to pay attention to the very basic of Forex charts that is ..... PRICE.


What you see above is the very basic of forex charting. Its candlestick and grid. Plain and simple yet how many of you actually take a look at it and try to understand it. Not much in it yet not many people care to look at it and try to understand it. Let me lay this out one by one.

First we have the grid. Its the horizontal line with price at the right side. When we talk about forex, price is the most important thing...period. If Forex has no price then I wouldn't be here wasting my time for nothing. Its the soul purpose of trading forex. If you look at the chart closely, you will see that I have traded short with 2 take profit point of same place but at different time. You can also see where my stop loss and take profit was. That's why I love Marketiva charts. Its shows you everything.

The chart is divided by the grid with many horizontal line. Each horizontal line has its own price and the grid changes according to the market. If the market is active, the grid will become bigger and vice verse. If you look at the chart properly, you will see that the price actually responded to the grid. The price will move up and break the line one at a time during slow uptrend and break a few line at once during heavy trading. Now, the question is what can we do with that behaviour?

Let me explain to you my previous short trade. When and why I took the trade. I entered GJ short at 200.40 with 2 position and immediately put stop loss at 201.00. During my last entry the grid was at 200.40 and the top line was at 200.98. That is 58 pip grid wide. Meaning that my stop loss and take profit will be at 58 pip each. So I took the short trade at 200.40 with SL @ 201.00 (rounded numbers, easier to remember) with 1st TP @ 199.80 (rounded number to nearest line). My 1st TP was hit and closed 1 position. The 2nd position SL was moved to 200.41 and eventually 199.80 when price broke the next line.

Its all about numbers. 199.80, 200.40 and 201.00. What a coincidence. They are all 60 pips apart. Meaning 2 post win at 60 pip each, so far tonite I got 120 pip in the bag from grid trading alone. Currently I have a stop order to short GJ @ 200.60 and SL @ 201.00. Now that is 40 pip wide. What happen to 60 pips apart??? As I said before, the grid changes according to the market so pay attention. The stop order may not get hit but at the time of writing, the grid at 200.56 is already hit and missed my order by just a few pips.

I am sure by this time, some of you will have lots of question and doubt. Put all those question and doubt at rest and look at the naked chart. You may find that the hardest question may have the simplest answer. You just have to tackle the problem one at a time.


As of this morning, my stop order on GJ is filled. Currently GJ has already broke the 1st TP. SL will be move to 200.56 in due time. The plan currently is to follow the price at each level.

1st TP is broken if the current candle close below 200.14 and SL will be move to 200.56. When price broke the next level at 199.72, SL will be move again to 200.14 and so on. Moving the SL to the previous level each time price breaks a new level. That is the game plan. Btw, I am writing this in real time and this article will be updated from time to time until this chapter is finish.

I wont lie to you, Forex is a risky business. The risk is so great that every businessman will avoid it once they knew the level of risk involved. In order to be profitable in Forex you must control the risk and maximize the return. The only question is how much risk are you willing to take? As for me my risk tolerance is around 60 pip. So in order to find a trade that suit my risk, I would cycle through different chart and timeframe until I find a chart with grid small enough to suit my risk tolerance. Meaning this kind of trading doesnt require you to stick to any timeframe. Timeframe depends on the level of risk you are willing to trade. You can even trade GJ off weekly chart if you can stand the risk of 585 pips.

Current GJ position has initial risk of 40 pips only. If GJ decided to turn around and go the other way, I will surely lose 40 pips only but if GJ move according to plan, my minimum profit will be 40 pips. That is 1:1 risk/reward ratio. With the plan of following the price at previous level, I should get a better ratio than that. You cannot win everytime but make sure that when you win, you win big.

Back to Basic

In anything we do, when it comes to problem solving. We must go back to basic. We must understand the basic and solve the problem from basic and improvise in between.

When it comes to forex, we must do the same. Forex nowadays have become so complicated with advance platform, charting and indicators. We can easily become lost in all of that.

In order to understand it, we must look at it in the simplest way possible. Use the basic at it full extend and only after that we can advance to the next level.

In this few weeks I am going to post a simple system consisting of basic chart with no indicator at all. Only after we understand the basic will we add on indicators to improve the accuracy of trading. In the end we will have a few system combine into 1.

No matter how good a system is, it will all goes down to the trader. In order to learn something new, we must first change our self. It is by far the hardest part to do. It is where most traders fail.

March AUD/JPY Free Fall

Sunday, March 23, 2008

On February 27th the AUDJPY reached 100.41 at it's highest. Less than a month later, on Mar 20th we got as low as 88.18 for a short period of time. That's a difference of more than 1200 pips in approximately 3 weeks!There's no way to be sure, except to wait and see how things turn out, but on the 16th we hit 88.16 when the AUDJPY bottomed out. At the very least there is some healthy resistance

Asean Committee for Disaster Management

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Been a busy week. I am involve in the ACDM providing logistic and technical support. Hopefully everything will be over by end of this week. I am going to post a simple system for beginners. Its a simple system but requires good dicipline. See you later

Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Well, I'm really at an impasse with respect to the current state of the AUD/JPY. There are all kinds of messages out there that point to some serious downside risk, but at the same time it has fallen a great amount already.So, to cut short a lot of withering and dithering, it's time to start sticking a toe into the market. I want to start accumulating some small positions, without risking any

Another piece of the puzzle

Sunday, March 9, 2008

Previously RSI 8 was shown as possible reverse point. It needs more filter since on a trending market, price tends to continue following the trend.

The filter inserted is LWMA with the value of 8, 24, 48 and 192. Generally 8 and 24 gives the signal when it crosses and the rest is dynamic support and resistance. 8/24 cross should be inline with RSI8. Meaning when the cross happens, RSI8 value should be < 50.

If you see the chart, I entered 2 position based on RSI8 max. The price hovers above my entry point and at the end 8/24 cross + RSI8 <50. I enter another post. Guess what, my early entry is only 10 pips lower then after i got the signal. Hopefully next week EG will continue to drop.

BTW, I found that MV indicators are different from MT4 brokers. Its seems that MV indicators are much more accurate and less prone to whipshaw. Furthermore MV has the last piece of the puzzle which is not available on MT4 platform.

Maybe next time I will post the last piece.

Fuel Saver

Sunday, March 2, 2008

This is a different topic, but it is one of my hobby. Its about cars.

Basically cars need 3 things to move that is fire, air and fuel. This 3 things combine gives the car power to move. If you want to optimize the car efficiency you need to work with this 3 things mainly.

When we talk about fire, the electrical system, fire from the spark plug is the element that make the fire. It must be working at its peek for the car to feel good.

For air is anything that requires air to move, exhaust system, air in the combustion chamber, air filter, tyre pressure etc.

Fuel, is petrol or diesel in the tank that feed into the engine.

Of all the 3 parts, fuel is the hardest part to optimize. We can always use bigger or better injector but the result is not very good in terms of fuel economy.

A car that is optimize should be powerfull and fuel economy at the same time.

Recently I found a device that optimize the fuel. Logically its a hard thing to do. Fuel in form of liquid and it optimize the fuel and maximize the burning process resulting in increase power and fuel economy.

I was sceptical at first but I bought it anyway. No harm trying with price tag of RM250.00. Put in on my car.

Test Subject:
The test subject is a small car. A kancil fitted with Daihatsu L2S engine. 660cc turbo charger automatic. This baby is so small and lightweight yet has so much power. It can go head to head with the latest honda civic 1.8 on drag race.

An old car with 4-AGE engine. The latest engine from the 4AG family of toyota. 1.6cc, extremely powerfull and super responsive compared to older version

Waja with 1.6cc engine automatic. One of the best Proton ever built. Engine power and road handling equivalent to many european cars. It is based on Lotus technology anyway. No surprise.

The Spec:
Daihatsu Mira TR-XX Turbo EFI 12 Valve Limited Edition L200S:
Engine ID : EF-JL
Engine Model : FMPX-S2(L200S)
Engine Type : Water Cooled,4 Stroke,Inline 3,SOHC 12 Valve Turbocharger,3 Cylinder
Bore x Stroke : Same
Fuel System : Multi-Point EFI(Electronic Fuel Injection) with ECU(Electronic Computerised Units)
Cubic : 659cc
Torque : 10.9kg at 3,600rpm
Hp : 64 at 6,400rpm
Boost Pressure : 0.8bar
Top Speed : 170km/h to 180km/h
Weight : 750kg
Spark Plags : Nippon Denso = QL22TR-S or NGK = BCPR7EKD
Turbocharger : IHI Turbocharger
Average Fuel Consumption: 6km/RM1

Test Result:
After installing the fuel saver. 1st tank of fuel gave me 7.4km/RM1. Thats a savings of about 12.3%. Not a big number but I must tell you, throttle respond is fast. Its like a cheetah waiting to be unleashed. Everytime I push the throttle, the car just jump away. Maybe thats why I dont have good fuel economy, I was driving like a maniac.

Btw I forgot to mention. The spec upthere is the standard spec. After a few modification, the car is transform from a car for grandmother to a racing car. 0-100kmh in less than 10 seconds.

I will update on the other 2 cars later. At the moment Im still crazy with the throthle respond and jumping away everytime I wanted.


All cars reported to have increase in HP. Fuel savings is at minimum ranging from 10% - 30% but the power increase is enough to justify the price. For RM250 there is a huge upgrade to vehicle power. Do you like it if your car can do 0 - 100 in 10 seconds. I love every second of it.

Crushed By The AUD/JPY Rollover?

Saturday, March 1, 2008

How did you do during the recent AUDJPY (AUD/USD to USD/JPY) freefall?If you were paying attention you noticed the double top happen not too long ago -- the one I blogged about recently. That was your warning that the market was facing a potential reversal.The market fell pretty fast. I hope you weren't sitting on any large unprotected positions.While I don't have the patience to stay

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