AUDJPY: Technical Analysis

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Well, my posts are few and far between these days.In case anyone else is still following long here is some good information on the 3hr AUDJPY.We have a nice symmetric triangle going all the way back to November 25th.See?I'm expecting this to break (upward) and then run into a downward sloping resistance line on the 1d AUDJPY. However, we'll have to wait and see. I've been wrong (more than a few

Challenging Times

Monday, November 30, 2009

While I realize the world went through a bit of an unwind, before and after the Dubai incident, I've been busy with work and family issues instead.Things have just been incredibly busy!In any case, what with the volatility and unwinding that has been going on it's probably a good time to be inactive. I did manage to blow up my small discretionary account (my robots are far better traders than I

Trading Week Recap

Saturday, November 14, 2009

I've been leery of letting BREAD (my primary trading robot) trade too much. I suspect prior tweaks have it taking too much risk. As such I kept it on a short leash and it only earned 0.9% for the week. Perhaps I'll have time to make some adjustments over the weekend.On the discretionary front I was back down to a more reasonable 13% this week. Last week's 34% was probably some type of market

AUDJPY: Ominously Flat

Thursday, November 12, 2009

I'm looking at a short term chart, but the lack of volatility suggests that something is in the air.Even with the recent good news from China things have been relatively lethargic.The daily chart is also showing the potential to have a few down days.This seems like a good time to manage risk.UPDATE: This evening, while I was on the road, I see that we had a nice spike upwards, hitting my

AUDJPY: Support Becomes Resistance

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

My last post showed a profitable overnight setup based on a week long support line on the 1hr chart.Here, I've got an example of a support becoming resistance once it has been violated.Take a look at the following 15min chart:See the violation around 9:00pm last night? As an aside, this was a good point to try a well protected short. Overnight we tested a longer term support line (see my

AUDJPY: Price Alert

Since I'm awake I thought I'd point out a price alert.The AUDJPY currency pair is testing a support line.A long tail break (closing on or above the support line) would still be a bullish sign.Anywhere, here's a recent 1hr chart snip.This is a good place to look for a trade. Good luck.NOTE: See the previous post... it shows the support line valid since November 1st.UPDATE: Upon waking this

AUDJPY Forecast

Sunday, November 8, 2009

What the heck, I may as well jump out on a limb and let you know what I'm seeing with the AUDJPY.Basically, if you look at the chart, we've had a good support line since the beginning of November.Now, if I've got the right chart uploaded, take a look below:Personally, I'd suggest taking a long position when the price approaches the support line. You can set a nearby stop and protect yourself

Trading Week Recap

Saturday, November 7, 2009

Since the trading robot, BREAD, was predominantly sidelined for the last couple of weeks I felt the need to do more discretionary trading.While the capital used wasn't very large it felt great to pull in a 34% increase over the course of the week. If I could scalp like this all the time it would definitely spell the end of the day job. I have dreams of setting up a trading office with spacious

Da Signals

Thursday, November 5, 2009

It takes a lot of fortitude to use them but I think the signals blog is proving itself useful.For example, right now we seem to have established a bottom in the recent AUDJPY downward movement.So, especially under such a condition, we get good results if we see a signal and then look for confirming behavior. Basically, the signals are great lead-ins to a period of analysis.No, they aren't all

Tough Week All Around

Saturday, October 31, 2009

With the recent downward move in the AUDJPY my robot has been sidelined. No big deal really but it does point to a possible correlation as I'd noted earlier. After a very good robot week, perhaps with behavior characteristic of a local top and massive robot profit, the market takes a downturn. There are only two data points so far but I'm definitely staying on the lookout for this. Above

Signals Blog Online

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Just a short note to let you know that my new signals blog is online. Obviously this is a use at your own risk situation.Robot Price AlertsAnyway, when my robots notice various conditions they will post a message concerning the event in question.The only notice type currently active may identify a situation that will either have a short term AUDJPY price rise offering a scalping opportunity or a

Minor BREAD Adjustments

Monday, October 26, 2009

The BREAD trading robot has had a minor tweak during this last weekend.To make a long story short, another risk modification metric has been defined. If things work as planned this will give the robot the ability to trade over a wider currency pair price move. Obviously, the plan is to simultaneously maintain the same level of profitability.My initial readings on quantitative analysis, via

Quantitative Analysis?

Sunday, October 25, 2009

It has been more than a few years since I've had to apply any serious math skills towards my work. However, I have noticed some discussion of quantitative analysis in a few forex forums as well as job listings posted for quants.For a very general introduction to this concept here are some links from Wikipedia:Stochastic calculusItō calculusMonte Carlo option modelStochastic

Robot Trading: Six Weeks In

Saturday, October 24, 2009

Things are going well. As you can see BREAD (Basic Robot Earning All Day) is starting to look like a winner. Return Day 0.1900% Sun 13 September 3.2339% Mon 14 3.1616% Tue 15 3.2615% Wed 16 2.1510% Thu 17 0.4442% Fri 18 --------------- 13.05% 0.1850% Sun 20 2.0259% Mon 21 0.9016% Tue 22 1.1536% Wed 23 0.2460% Thu 24 0.1338% Fri 25 ----------

Forex Robot Wars: BREAD vs ARTFAB

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Two titans of the forex robot trading industry are squaring off in the search for higher profits.In the green corner we have BREAD (Basic Robot Earning All Day) with consistent earnings of approximately 1.2% per day. In the other green corner we have the relatively new ARTFAB (A Rising Tide Floats All Boats) with very promising early results. Already today ARTFAB has locked in over 3.0%

AUDJPY: Market Call

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

The AUDJPY has done a whole lot of nothing for the last few days.Can you blame it? It must be tired after the recent climb.More seriously, with the RBA considering whether to raise rates another 25 or perhaps even 50 basis points, I don't expect any type of calamitous drop.I think we might see a drop down to 83.00 again but if it does stop in that region I'd consider the range between there and

Possible AUDJPY Reversal Point

Monday, October 19, 2009

I obviously have no guarantees but, according to my own proprietary reversal indicator, this is a potential reversal point.Again, do your own homework, but this is the "signal" I'll be posting to my alerts blog...UPDATE: It's about 9:49pm and the AUDJPY 1hr chart is showing a potential twin tail.UPDATE: It's 10:03pm and here's the 1hr chart right now...And here's the chart from my last post

AUDJPY: October Trend

The AUDJPY has been on an upward trajectory for a while now.There is no telling, at least not in advance, whether we'll see more massive upward movement due to hawkish statements from the RBA or not.However, here is a 3hr chart showing recent movements:Obviously, clear support and resistance helps identify some lower risk entry points.

New Robot Rules Fermenting

Saturday, October 17, 2009

It's late Friday night, the markets are closed, and all through the house not a creature is stirring. Well, nobody but the scheming trader hatching up another robotic system.As someone who designs software systems for a living I can assure you that, in terms of making improvements, nothing is more helpful than watching a system in action. The key point here is the concept of "seeing" the results

Meteoric AUDJPY Rise

Friday, October 16, 2009

I'm starting to get more than a little cautious about the stellar increase in the AUDJPY over the last several days.While it's true that markets can continue to move higher or lower for long periods of time it's important not to get too caught up in recent events. In fact, though we all react to these things at different rates, you can consider it a warning whenever there is something to get

Recent Forex Results

Thursday, October 15, 2009

I've had some success analyzing the AUDJPY over the last few days. In particular, whether by luck or otherwise I managed to spot some channels, one of them an apparent bull flag, a wedge leading to 82.00 and then predicting a breakthrough beyond that level.It's very rewarding to make an observation and then have results conform to your expectations.Anyway, I'm still letting my robot do my

AUDJPY: Possible Bull Flag

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

My last post focused on a short term channel.This time I'm looking at a longer term trend -- though still on the 1hr AUDJPY chart. This one looks like it might be a bull flag.It's always hard to tell. However, with future interest rate hikes expected, it's likely we'll continue our upward movement if signs of an Australian recovery remain strong.Here's the chart:Play safe.UPDATE: It's 7:00am

AUDJPY: Channel on the 1hr

There's a channel on the AUDJPY 1hr chart.For as long as the channel decides to last we have an opportunity at either the top or bottom levels.Notice it going back and forth?This is perfect for my custom trading robot...Unfortunately, predictability never lasts.Well, that was nice. It's about an hour and half later... see the bounce? Click the image to get a larger version...Are we going to

AUDJPY: 3hr A/D Trend

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Here's a snip showing the accumulation distribution on the AUDJPY since the 2nd of October.The recent test of the support line happened today near 2:30pm. Obviously, the fact that the RBA appears to be ready to continue a series of interest rate hikes appears to be driving this.I'm looking for this line to break.UPDATE: It's just after 6:30pm and I figured it might be nice to get a larger look

Robot Upgrades: Preliminary Results

Monday, October 12, 2009

On weekends I like to either tweak existing robots or create new ones. While it's very early in the process I think the most recent tweaks are going to have a noticeable positive effect.I woke up around 4:00am this morning and thought I'd check on the computer. What did I see? A nice AUDJPY move from 81.10 to 81.50 for now. Anyhow, this weekend's tweaks were operating on the dip and return.

BREAD's Trading Results

Saturday, October 10, 2009

Yes, for lack of a better name I am calling my robot BREAD. This is short for Basic Robot Earning All Day. It has been given minor tweaks from time to time but it still continues to follow the same system and strategy... taking advantage of constant price oscillations in the AUDJPY. While the results don't look all that spectacular I invite you to investigate how this ends up in a compound

Skeptical About The AUDJPY?

Friday, October 9, 2009

I'm sorry you feel that way. Perhaps after looking at the following chart snip you'll think that you may have missed the boat.See how the daily chart shows solid support since March? March! Hello, it's a little too late to be skeptical. The question you have to ask yourself is why has the AUDJPY been performing so well and how long will it continue to do so.On another note, I'm going to start

Beating The AUD Drum

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Did anyone notice this AUD tidbit?Unemployment fell to 5.7% from 6.0% against expectations of no change. The extremely strong job number will cement expectations that the RBA will continue to hike rates and perhaps be more aggressive in doing so.If you been following my blog this isn't going to be a surprise.As my last post said... buy on dips.

Buy AUDJPY On Dips?

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

It's very plausible that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) has started the slow process of moving interest rates from emergency levels to normal.RBA Starts Rate RisesWe'll want to see what happens over the next couple of months in order to confirm this analysis. However, from now on whenever the markets are panicked about the latest downward surprise, it might be time to dip your toes in.We're

US Economy Heads Up

If you are wondering what is going on with the US economy, this puzzle piece from CNBC will fit in very nicely.Dunkelberg: You Can't See Main Street From Wall StreetWhat this is saying is that there probably is not a small business collapse in the works due to credit issues. Smaller businesses will simply wait until they see consumer spending before they bother to access credit.Personally, I am

Robot Strategy / Development

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Without getting into detailed specifics I thought I'd try to answer a recent question about the strategies I'm trying with my various robots.First, a bit of background in case this is the first post you see on this blog:I design software and systems for a livingI've been trading for years -- learning through the heart of the downturn.With that out of the way I'd suggest looking at one of my posts

AUDJPY Roller Coaster

Saturday, October 3, 2009

Generally, I follow and prefer to trade the AUDJPY. It goes through unwinds from time to time as the bigger players suffer fits of risk aversion.For the last few weeks we've been bouncing back and forth between 77 and 80. On the way down, with all the gloom and doom blaring in the media, it feels like we must be about to fall off a cliff.It's difficult not to be scared. After all, anyone who

Forex Robot Mania

Saturday, September 26, 2009

As suggested in my last post...As a side note, I'm planning to make opposing robots this weekend. They will trade long and short positions in different sub-accounts.I've put together yet another robot. It will trade the same currency both long and short in separate sub-accounts. I'll have to wait until Monday or Tuesday to activate it.A few points I feel are worth mentioning:I've been developing

Friday Market Analysis

Friday, September 25, 2009

I am following CNBC regularly (via their web site) these days. I see many of the pundits advocating panic and doom. I suspect they all want to be able to claim they were right when we finally do experience some type of pullback.However, these braying naysayers of doom really don't have much of import to say. All they really do is act as large forces on the emotions of market players. Everyone

Thursday Robot Recap

Thursday was a very slow day.The market was down. The yen crosses took a dive. Everyone is getting antsy about stocks, news reports, and the month of September. OMG, the risk! My robot snoozed for much of the day and had little chance to earn anything useful.However, amidst all the whining I have to realize that being up about 4.5% for the week isn't so bad.Regardless, I did tweak things a

Wednesday Status

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Wednesday was a slow day.The AUDJPY was very quiet, which left little opportunity for my robot to extract revenue. In fact, with the DOW drop at the end of the trading day today we may be looking at a bit of a downward correction over the next little while.My robot is not very active during downward movements. So, I'll get bored, worry about long term profitability, and otherwise be motivated

Monday Robot Review

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

If you are a new visitor I should let you know I'm reviewing my own proprietary forex robot -- I'm not providing a general review of robots.The GoodProfitability continues. Sunday evening the robot earned 0.2% and over the course of Monday it earned 2.0% return. It's not obvious, but when capital is added to the robot old smaller positions provide less return when closed profitably. This means

Weekend Robot Development II

Monday, September 21, 2009

While not fully tested, as the market isn't open for trading, I have also completed both the meta-robot concept and a notification system.The meta-robot will look at the trades made via the current profitable robot and impose rules that require trades to open at a better price. The required difference, in pips, will be divided in two and added to the meta-robot's take profit point. For example,

Weekend Robot Development

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Now that the weekend is here it's time to put on the thinking cap and figure out how to increase earnings, reduce risk or both.As mentioned in a reply to a comment on the previous post I've reallocated funds, put in a reserve amount and added a manual release amount.The reserve amount holds back capital from the lot size calculation and the total margin available calculation. This capital is

Forex Robot Wars

Thursday, September 17, 2009

As you can see by my last few posts I've had a couple of trading robots slugging it out for the last few days.I'm happy to announce that the latest robot has absolutely thrashed my initial robot. Here are the recent earnings for this week:Sun 0.19%Mon 3.23%Tue 3.16%Wed 3.26%Obviously, I'm going to retire the previous robot, which earned at an average pace of approximately 0.5% per day, and

DAILY TRADING - THERE IS NO SPOON

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Some people are asking me about the secret of daily trading. The answer is there is no secret. It is there for everyone to see but the question is, can you accept what you see.

Trading the daily chart requires patience, lots of it. That is what most of us lack. Patience. If you look at the longer timeframe charts, you will see that price will stop or hover around certain areas. That is your key point. Always start or stop trading around these key point.

The next indicator I use is CCI. CCI alone is a bit of a headache. So I smooth it out with MA. With the MA, I can see the direction of trade clearly. People say MA is a lagging indicator but I dont want to be early going to a party. I like to enter when the party already started.

The last advice is, there is no such thing as holly grail. You just cannot win all the time. The best that we can do is try to win as much as possible and lose a little as possible. In the long run, it would be profitable enough to stay trading. Otherwise you need to find another business to run.

Two Live Robots

Monday, September 14, 2009

Sunday evening I unleashed another trading robot. Here's how I set up my sub-accounts to do this in a reasonably safe manner.My initial or primary account is used to add or remove funds.Each robot trades in it's own sub-accountThis let's me track the returns for each robot in a trivial manner. It also means that each robot is 100% independent. If you do this be sure to name your sub-accounts

Oanda Robot Trading -- Cost Efficiently

Sunday, September 13, 2009

If you are trading with Oanda, as I am, you are probably aware that you have to trade a fair amount before their monthly API fees are waived.However, there is an alternative. The first time I tried their platform, probably shortly after it was released, I didn't find it very inviting. However, about a month ago I tried again. Guess what? While I might not use the platform for discretionary

TRADING THE DAILY CHARTS

Saturday, August 29, 2009

Due to restricted time and Internet connection that I have now, I have opted to trading using the daily charts.

Its not as aggressive and thrilling as trading on the shorter time frame but the result is about the same minus the headache. I'm beginning to like daily trading. I need to make decision once in a while and the rest of the time I just hold my position.

On a daily chart, the candlestick is much easier to read and pattern is much clearer. On 13th August I opened 3 position. 2 of which is still holding while 1 has been closed. At the moment all position are in profit.

Daily trading is not for everyone. It took me sometime to adjust on the requirements of daily trading, but once you are there you never look back.

Till next time, good luck everyone

Robot Trading

Friday, August 21, 2009

I'm finally trading my own proprietary forex robot.The best part is that I have the sound of money chiming on my computer at work every time I have a position closed due to reaching it's take profit price.Anyway, no, I have no other hype to push.What I do have is the power of the robot mind to watch the market 24 hours a day. What do I mean? I mean that as long as my computer stays on and

Recent Forex Efforts

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Since the recent yen cross meltdown started I've been trying to keep from getting caught on the wrong side of any massive downward moves.As I generally trade only the AUDJPY, mostly on the long side, things have been pretty quiet!However, we are now facing some resistance at 74.50 on the 1hr -- which should be illustrative. We have done what might be a triple bounce off of support in the

Monster Scalps With AUDJPY

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

I've been shamelessly scalping the AUDJPY this week (via Oanda). It may be hard to fathom, at least when you see the numbers, but I'm not entirely happy with my results.Jun 28: 00.28% NAV+Jun 29: 06.65% NAV+Jun 30: 11.66% NAV+So far this week, if I can hang onto it, I'm up over 19% on my trading account.Now, you may be wondering why I'm not satisfied with my trading. Basically, I've made too

Alert: AUDJPY Head And Shoulders?

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

I've spent most of today scalping the AUDJPY (on the long side).Jumping up to my 3hr and 4hr charts, as I have two platforms running, I see an upside down head and shoulders.You may want to take a look at this and see what you think.

Back From A Trading Break

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Well, it's been a while since I posted. Things have been hectic, but I did just take a short vacation. No running water. No cell phones. No internet. No trading. There were, however, lakes and fish.I think I'm ready to do some serious speculation at this point... as long as the market behaves.Hopefully I'll soon be posting and tweeting up a storm!We'll see.

NEW STRATEGY AND THE RESULT IS ...

Thursday, June 4, 2009

On my last post, I was telling you about a new system. I decided to do forward testing. As usual all testing was done on a demo account. No live account was hurt during the testing period.

The result as you see is superb. There are actually 2 part of testing. The early trades are done on a shorter time frame, 5 minute to be exact. The later part of testing is done on a longer time frame, 1 hour.

I must say the system looks promising on the longer time frame. On the shorter time, I just dont have the time to monitor the trades.

As of now the system is running on my live account. At the moment on 4th June my account is up 40%. Hopefully everything goes well and I will have good profit by end of the month. Will keep you inform on the result later.

Long Term Carry Trade Fundamentals

Thursday, May 28, 2009

While reading a recent CNBC article about current events something clicked for me.Here is the passage:The dollar rose broadly on Thursday as yields on 10-year U.S. government bonds jumped more than 50 basis points in the last two weeks, drawing Japanese investors into overseas assets like global semi-conductor stocks, banks and U.S. junk bonds, according to Reuters.Do you remember the massive

Twitter Forex Tweet Strategy

Have you been following people involved in fx trading on twitter?Have you noticed how many people are happy to tell you what happened? While macroeconomic news and previous day post analysis can be useful, it certainly doesn't help you make a trading decision based on current charts. I have a little proposal to make.Instead of tweeting that you've opened a long or short position provide some

Forex Tips - Microtrading

The AUDJPY currency pair is currently trading around the 76.00 mark.Over the last twenty days, from May 7 through May 27, I've been experimenting with a concept I've been calling microtrading.I don't intend to close all of my positions at the moment, but if I did my account NAV would increase by more than 10% over that period.While I realize that active trading can return spectacular results

FX Trading And Analysis

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

I've become a little frustrated with most of news sources out there. If you've been an active forex trader for any length of time you'll notice that talking heads are always trying to tell you why something happened.That's really nice, and might possibly help you learn about various financial interactions, but it's absolutely useless from a trading point of view. If you are trading you need to

Microtrading: Decent Returns?

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

I blogged about this idea not too long ago. The concept is to use very small trades relative to your available margin and net asset value (NAV). I'm doing this with the AUDJPY pair so that when I accumulate positions I am earning a positive carry trade return.My trade size over the last week has been such that the margin involved in each trade is 0.2% of my NAV. That's tiny. Twenty five

NEW PLACE, NEW SCHEDULE AND A NEW SYSTEM

Friday, May 15, 2009

On April 2009, I moved to Kuala Lumpur. A new place requires me to have new schedule. I dont have much time as I would like in front of a PC which means, shorter time for me to trade. It requires me to adapt to the time I have to trade and make a new system.

In my quest to adapt my existing system to a new time constraint trading requirement, I accidently stumble onto a new system. Its a very simple system that has shown good result for the month of April and May at the moment.

Just to show you what I have stumble upon, here is a screen shot of my demo account that I have used to run the test. It doesn't show high accuracy but it shows a return of over 100% last month and a small return this month so far.

Here is the hard part. What if I say that I can actually have an accuracy of 100%. Meaning I can win all the time with this system. The numbers you see there is me using a demo account trading with limited time with no regards for the system rules.

Would it be nice to actually win all the time. I will keep you guys posted on the result by the end of this month. In the meantime I cannot be online as long as I like to. For my friends, I know my YM is not online for a long time but just leave a message and I will answer when I have the time.

LWMA 55

Saturday, May 9, 2009

One of my favorite indi is LWMA 55. I dont know why but the price seems to react a lot of this line. People say that MA is a lagging indicator and I agree with them 100% but do not use MA as a signal generator, instead use them as a dynamic support and resistance.

For those of you who love to experiment, try putting LWMA 55 on a chart and see how price actually interact with the line. Its not magic but its a mathematical calculation.

Dont get me wrong, you may not be able to trade using MA 55 alone. Try putting LWMA 13 in there as well and remember they are not signal generators. Treat them as dynamic support and resistance.

Put it into a simple formula. If price > LWMA 13 & LWMA 55 = long. If price < LWMA 13 & LWMA 55 = short.

Try it, you may like what you find. Just needed to add in a filter to improve accuracy.

Theory: Trading With Little To No Margin

Thursday, May 7, 2009

As I often do, especially when the markets are excruciatingly slow in determining when to make the next significant move, I've been thinking about Forex.Take a mental walk with me...The DOW falls from 10,000 to 5,0000 and loses 50% of it's value. It returns from 5,000 to 10,000 and gains 100% of it's value.Wait, think about that for a minute. In the normal world having the ability to gain

MT4 EA: Average Position Based Trading

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

While I don't have any pictures to show, yet, I am working on an EA that trades AUDJPY based on the market price relative to the average price of positions held.The first few passes at this type of system were pitiful. My testing starts from September of last year to now while only opening long positions. As you can imagine this is a difficult period of time for a long only system!However, late

Theory: Gridding Microtrades

Friday, May 1, 2009

I've been thinking about grid based strategies designed to take advantage of volatility without incurring great risk.The idea is that the strategy be followed using a carry trade pair in the event that you do inevitably end up holding some positions. You'll want a platform with a decent spread. Oanda often has about a 3.0 pip spread on the AUDJPY pair -- my current pair of choice.So, let's

Oanda FXTrade On Ubuntu Dell Mini 12

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Okay, it's working.I have Oanda running a single FXTrade window while I'm open in another browser typing this blog post.Here is what I did to get this working:Close down extra charts -- only the basic platform window is running.Eliminate extra currency pairs -- only follow two or three active pairsShrink the window -- show everything but in as small a footprint as it practical.With these steps I

Dell Mini 12 -- Ubuntu

I recently bought the Dell Mini 12 thinking it would be noiseless, so that I could leave it on overnight while I slept. I tend to wake up from time to time so that would be an easy way to check for Forex opportunities during the night.Unfortunately, running the Oanda FxTrade application causes the system to grind to a halt. Right now my profile automatically opens multiple charts (1 min, 15 min

MT4 EA: Stupid Programming Mistakes

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Well, I spent last evening tracking down some problems in my next foray into programming expert advisers.It turns our that a simple logical test was using an '&' instead of an '&&' between two terms.This little horseshoe nail caused some position closing attempts to fail with an error 138 -- meaning that the price being used to close the position was too far away from the market price.I also ran

MT4 EA: Moving Towards Sustainability

Monday, April 27, 2009

Yesterday's experiments with creating an expert advisor to scalp the 5 minute chart show great profits and great risk.I've been working to reduce the level of risk without taking away the reasonable chance of making reasonable profits.Here is the most recent chart:This is running from 01-Feb-2009 to 25-Apr-2009 and obviously surviving any ups and downs during that period.I'm still not happy with

MT4 EA: Aggresive 5 Minute Scalper

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Well, it's the weekend, what else is a grown man to do?I had an inspiration for an (overly) aggressive expert advisor today. Basically, it's a simple buy low and sell high machine using oscillators.Scope out the chart. It does fairly well for a period of time and then when the market finds it's achilles heel it is undone.All is not lost. I have some ideas for improving the aggression factor as

GBPUSD: A Drunken Sailor

Friday, April 24, 2009

The cable, as the GBPUSD is called, looks like drunken sailor.The chart is all over the map, with massive daily swings lined up one after the other all over the place.There are some pips to be made in there!I'm not generally trading the GBPUSD, but I'm going to put a few moments into figuring out whether my AUDJPY chart set up seems applicable.It's hard to resist all that volatility.

AUDJPY: Tweezer Top?

The market has about 6 minutes to change it's mind.If it doesn't, this is going to look like a tweezer top on the 1 hour.Now, that would be something I'd consider bearish (I originally typed bullish).If you read my last post... you know I'd like that to happen!Now about 4 minutes left.Zzzz. No market reaction on the hour.Maybe the tails weren't long enough -- or I'm too impatient?... continuing .

AUDJPY: Short On Failure?

It might be time to think about shorting the AUDJPY.It's coming up to a recent high and might not have a lot of legs left.If we get a decent failure there could be a shorting opportunity for some part of this evening.See (on the 1 hour)?Let's keep an eye on this...... continuing ...Down on the 1 minute chart we seem to have some resistance to get through before we have the ability to drop:...

AUDJPY: Morning Peek

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Well, first, I can't believe I'm awake this early after such a long night. I need to hone my craft and trade for a living -- I'd be able to keep better hours.Anyway, this morning we have the follow up to last nights analysis.We're looking at what appears to be a double bottom with no idea whether or not we'll reap the technical rewards that they can offer.Since I slept through the last several

AUDJPY: Look Who's Consolidating

Well, I should be sleeping, but since I'm not I thought I'd take another look at the charts.Guess what -- it's the same chart but I see something new!Okay, sure, a bit more time has passed. However, with the added points I clearly see that we seem to be consolidating.There should be some money to be made while we bounce around... and then some money to be made when a direction is chosen.As ever,

AUDJPY: Did We Bounce?

My last blog post, audjpy decision point, talked about an upcoming decision point. At the moment it looks like we are going to begin an upward leg.I'm feeling particularly cautious at the moment, especially since this is only on the 15 minute chart, but I thought I'd post it.Notice the last candlestick:As I'm long term bullish on AUDJPY let's hope this is the beginning, or perhaps resumption, of

AUDJPY: Decision Point

I'm looking at the 3HR chart at the moment. We seem to be looking at an impending strike on a recent support line.If this resistance holds we might have a technical setup that would allow for a nice gain.Take a look:See how there was something of a W shape starting in the middle of the 19th? See how the chart is currently on the second touch down of a second W? If we bounce off the support line

WHAT FOREX IS NOT

Tuesday, April 21, 2009



Forex is not a quick rich scheme.
Forex is not easy even though my blog says so.
Forex is not a place for newbie
Forex is not something you can learn overnight
If you needed the money, dont put it in Forex. Seriously. Go somewhere else.
Forex is a journey, enjoy it.
There is no such thing as holy grail coz there is no perfection in this world. If perfection exist in this world it would be boring. No more room for improvement.
Forex is not rocket science. There is no right or wrong. There is only probability.

WHAT FOREX IS NOT



Forex is not a quick rich scheme.
Forex is not easy even though my blog says so.
Forex is not a place for newbie
Forex is not something you can learn overnight
If you needed the money, dont put it in Forex. Seriously. Go somewhere else.
Forex is a journey, enjoy it.
There is no such thing as holy grail coz there is no perfection in this world. If perfection exist in this world it would be boring. No more room for improvement.
Forex is not rocket science. There is no right or wrong. There is only probability.

AUDJPY: Waiting For The Trend To Break

I often think that evening trading goes through a period of doldrums. It gets boring. Things move slowly, if at all. Ten pips gain or loss can take an hour or more to happen.Zzzz.At the moment, as you can see by the chart below, I'm waiting for the current trendlet to break:This is a 1MIN chart, hence the "trendlet" concept.

AUDJPY: Decision Point

After the downward move, see the last post, we are now poised to either bounce off the previous low or sink down.In other words, either result provides opportunity.Here's another snap of the 1MIN showing the AUDJPY bouncing just above the recent low of 68.06 (as shown by the yellow support lines drawn under the candlesticks).Take a look, make your call, set a good stop if you know how......

AUDJPY: The Bounce At 68.06

I was watching the AUDJPY as it slid downward today.As you might expect it was following a nice trend on the way down. It's currently following a nice trend line on the way up too.Here's a 1MIN chart showing the upward movement from the 68.06 bounce.I don't really place a lot of stock (heh, bad pun) in the 1MIN but it's interesting nonetheless.... continuing ...This is getting more interesting:A

Forex Analysis Post-Review

Well, did anyone notice what happened based on the forex analysis I posted over the weekend.The EURUSD, posted here, indeed moved upwards a bit before resuming it's downtrend.The AUDJPY, posted here, with a followup here, broke it's support line and henceforth fell like a stone.Nice. While I obviously am not able to say which way it will go in advance, it seems I was able to pinpoint the action

AUDJPY: Breaking Trend?

Monday, April 20, 2009

Though I'm a bit leery of Sunday price action it looks like a fairly long term support line is being broken.This could be interesting.... continuing ...Looking closer, this may not yet be a break, as there have been previous "breaks" which gives us a bit of leeway here. A redraw based on a previous "break" leaves a bit of breathing room still.... continuing ...Waking up at 5:30am I see that

AUDJPY: Weekend Analysis

If you've been following along you'll notice that I keep mentioning that I am long term bullish on the AUDJPY.One of the reasons is that I think we've seen the worst of the panic and risk aversion. Another reason is that I think we're now closer to a recovery and following period of economic expansion than a lot of people expect.Given these two thoughts, and the following chart, it's easy to see

EURUSD: Weekend Analysis

Saturday, April 18, 2009

I don't generally trade the EURUSD but since it's the weekend I seem to have some extra time on my hands.Here are a series of charts, in varying timeframes, that I'd use to get a general feel for this currency pair.First, let's look at the 1D chart to see what's happened over the long term. I've compressed the chart a fair amount in order to get it to fit into a single snapshot -- you should be

AUDJPY: Weekend Recap

I don't really have anything new to add since Forex markets are closed for the weekend.We are still constrained within what appears to be a consolidation pattern. We are approaching the end of the pattern and the bollinger bands on my 1hr chart are collapsing.I've also got a nifty new screen snipping tool that I wanted to try out... ;)While I do remain long term bullish there is a lot of noise

AUDJPY: Collapsing Bollinger

Friday, April 17, 2009

The range of price movements has been shrinking.Or, as generally considered from a technical analysis point of view, the bollinger bands are collapsing.Your guess is as good as mine as to the direction it will go, but usually when the bollinger bands collapse the currency will have completed it's consolidation and start a reasonable move up or down.Given that it's a Friday I'd have to say be

AUDJPY: Now What?

Well, we didn't really do much at all yesterday after bouncing off of a support line a couple of times.What does this mean?This means that the AUDJPY currency pair isn't currently behaving in a way that makes it easy to interpret. This means that we need to be careful.I have no idea what the market will do... except that it will either go up or down at some point.

AUDJPY: Some Upward Movement

Finally, after suggesting all day long that I'm looking for upward movement it's finally here.How long will it last? Who knows. Will it hit the top of my so-called consolidation zone? Don't know.Anyway, here's the latest from my chart...I'll be happiest if the pair zooms up like a rocket, but I'll lock in some profit if we get close to the resistance line.

AUDJPY: Still In Consolidation Range

I didn't have time to post another update during the day, but things have been pretty slow anyway.Here you can see that the AUDJPY has not yet broken out of the trend lines (that I have shown in early charts).I'm not sure what is going to happen during the Asian session, but as ever, I'm hoping for some bullish action.I'm sure you can see the market honoring the trend line by bouncing off it?

AUDJPY: Slow Decline

I'm sitting here watching the slow, achingly slow, decline in the AUDJPY.Based on RSI and stochastic evidence, not shown on the image below, it's very possible that we'll get an upturn soon.Anyway, this image shows you that we are continuing to approach what I've called a containment field. It represents a possible consolidation zone while the market tries to figure out whether to ultimately

AUDJPY: Don't Cross The Streams!

Thursday, April 16, 2009

It looks like we are going to test the containment of the possible AUDJPY consolidation zone I mentioned previously.Frankly, I had expected the market to hold up better to the news concerning jobs and housing, but then, if I could accurately predict what would happen I wouldn't be speculating would I?In any case, if we get an upward bounce around 70.75 - 70.85 then we are still in what I consider

AUDJPY: Risk Aversion

It's likely, with the bad jobs and housing starts news this morning, that risk aversion will come into play.Basically, the AUDJPY is a good indicator of fear in the markets these days.With all that said, I'm still going to watch closely for a bounce of the potential support line. That is likely to be the point that the market decides to rally or collapse for the day.... continuing ... I don't

AUDJPY: Possible Consolidation?

It's nearly 9:00am EST and we didn't drop low enough to get a real double bottom. We may have begun a consolidation process between 73.50 and 70.25 while the market figures out whether the next move is up or down.We'll have to see whether we continue to have lower highs and higher lows.If we are consolidating, then it's not hard to spot the support and resistance lines that will be likely to

AUDJPY: Long Entry Decision

I've been having some success calling the shots on the AUDJPY charts.This morning we've been having a correction from yesterday's highs. While I've been hearing scuttlebutt on twitter concerning shorting the carry trades, I remain upward biased.My view, the current drop in price is setting us up for a possible double bottom or simply a W shaped chart. Simultaneously, I do see some stochastic and

AUDJPY: Rebound

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Sweet. I've got a support line around ~70.60 that is approximately where the market bounced back into upward movement.If you follow my ramblings on Twitter you'll see me making noises about a rebound in the works... and it came about while I was asleep.It's a very good feeling to have the market respect your charts and signals. Too bad it doesn't happen all that often.No time to look into

BIG PLAYERS SEE ONLY BIG NUMBERS

I am typing this from my pc. It a bit of a mess now, the new house still needs a little work and I am not feeling well lately. Maybe its the change in climate.

This week I am going to talk about numbers only. Forex is after all based on numbers. Example, I have a long position on GBPUSD @ 1.4700 with a profit of 320 pips at the moment and still holding.

What I am going to say is big players only see big number. The do not see the last 2 digit. The last 2 digit is for scalpers. Big players only see the 1st 3 or 4 digit only. So if a bank wants to buy or hedge a currency they will give an instruction to buy at 1.47. Thats it. Simple yet people fails to see it.

So what happens at 1.47? The price will bounce of or hover around it but things arent always what they appear to be. What happen is price will have a range between 1.46 - 1.48. That is almost 200 pips wide range. Imagine what happen to your 50 or 100 pip SL?? Now you know why people lose money even though they have the right direction.

These big players have big money they dont mind to stand few hundreds negative pips coz in the end they will profit big time. What they do is they will have a standing order to trade at certain level. Because the total amount of order, the market cannot fill the order in 1 transaction and so price will hover or bounce of a certain level. This is where double top or bottom appear. Behind it is the action of filling orders by these big players.

Example EJ currently have a top of 1.34 and a bottom of 1.30. Big players are playing the game here. At the moment EJ is climbing and there is a big possibility that it will reach 1.34 again. I have a standing order to buy EJ at 1.30. If it hits there is a very big chance for 400 pips gain. Only time will tell.



Attach is a chart of GBPUSD. If you look carefully, you can see my actual entry point. I will explain the rest of the chart in due time.

BIG PLAYERS SEE ONLY BIG NUMBERS

I am typing this from my pc. It a bit of a mess now, the new house still needs a little work and I am not feeling well lately. Maybe its the change in climate.

This week I am going to talk about numbers only. Forex is after all based on numbers. Example, I have a long position on GBPUSD @ 1.4700 with a profit of 320 pips at the moment and still holding.

What I am going to say is big players only see big number. The do not see the last 2 digit. The last 2 digit is for scalpers. Big players only see the 1st 3 or 4 digit only. So if a bank wants to buy or hedge a currency they will give an instruction to buy at 1.47. Thats it. Simple yet people fails to see it.

So what happens at 1.47? The price will bounce of or hover around it but things arent always what they appear to be. What happen is price will have a range between 1.46 - 1.48. That is almost 200 pips wide range. Imagine what happen to your 50 or 100 pip SL?? Now you know why people lose money even though they have the right direction.

These big players have big money they dont mind to stand few hundreds negative pips coz in the end they will profit big time. What they do is they will have a standing order to trade at certain level. Because the total amount of order, the market cannot fill the order in 1 transaction and so price will hover or bounce of a certain level. This is where double top or bottom appear. Behind it is the action of filling orders by these big players.

Example EJ currently have a top of 1.34 and a bottom of 1.30. Big players are playing the game here. At the moment EJ is climbing and there is a big possibility that it will reach 1.34 again. I have a standing order to buy EJ at 1.30. If it hits there is a very big chance for 400 pips gain. Only time will tell.



Attach is a chart of GBPUSD. If you look carefully, you can see my actual entry point. I will explain the rest of the chart in due time.

AUDJPY: Risk vs Opportunity

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Today we see the crux of the issue.The AUDJPY has suffered a pullback. A return to recent highs gives us the possibility of a double top. A bounce off the recent low gives us the possibility of the a double bottom. There may be more complex structures at play as well, but you get the idea.This is risk point. This is an opportunity point.If you get in, say with a long position right now, you

AUDJPY: Forex Recap

It was a good day to be long AUDJPY.We're in a bit of a pullback right now. Obviously, this is either a great time to get in or it's the start of a downturn.That's how it works!I'm willing to take a nibble...

Bullish on AUDJPY

Monday, April 13, 2009

At the moment things are looking bullish for the AUDJPY.I popped in another small position a few moments ago and so far it's been north from there. If things turn around I'll wait for a good low and then play the game where I replace higher longs with lower longs.Obviously, though I don't expect another huge currency collapse, I'll still have to play it cautiously. You never can tell what might

Poised For The Pop

Thursday, April 9, 2009

As I mentioned a couple of days ago, I have been working on sinking some smaller positions while the AUDJPY was going sideways (or suffering a slow decline).Today is the day that this bears fruit. Trading lower positions for higher positions now has me with some sunk positions that I can unload at a decent profit as the AUDJPY continues to spike.

Was That My Correction?

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

A few days ago I was saying that perhaps the AUDJPY would pull back after it's very fast rise up into the 71.xx range.It continued rising to somewhere around 72.80 instead. However, early last night it was bumping down around the 70.00 mark. Was that my correction?My three hour (I trade with Oanda) shows leg room all the way to 68.xx if it's thinking about correcting.That's the trick with Forex

Riding the AUDJPY Sideways

So, it looks like we've had several days of sideways motion on the charts. I don't mind at all.As long as you buy on the low end and sell on the high end these are good times to play in the market too.For periods of non-trending action I like to watch the stochastic and RSI indicators. The stochastic are reasonable but they do give a ton of false signals. The RSI can help corroborate their

AUDJPY Popped To 72.30

Friday, April 3, 2009

Though I had expected a downturn before the pop... the long flat period today in the 71.xx range clued me in to a possible spike.When the 15 min bollinger bands tightened up and the price popped above it, the clinch was in.I hopped on with a couple tiny positions, nearly instantly protected by stop losses, and grabbed a few pips on the spike.Now the question is, will the uptrend continue or will

TRADING ONLY WITH MOVING AVERAGE

At the moment I am rather busy. Moving to a new place and house. The house still needs a lot of work. As a result, I do not have time to update this blog. Trading is still going on but on a shorter timeframe. Result is consistent now. AudUsd is very kind at the moment with no sudden movement.

In the next few weeks I will show you how to trade using only MA. As usual what works for me may not work for you. This is because some of you may not be able to follow the rules of the game.

RULES OF THE GAME
1. Trade based on your capital and the time that you have. The bigger your capital the longer the TF. The more time you have the longer the TF. Vice versa.

2. Only trade at the direction pointed by the MA pairs. If the MA pairs is showing mixed direction, do not trade. The MA pairs must be pointing at the same direction.

3. If a trade suddenly change direction, do not hesitate to close it at a loss and turn the trade. This is the hardest part where most of you failed. Free your mind or become a loser all your life.

4. Keep in mind, there is no such thing as winning all the time. Just make sure you win a lot more than you lose. In the end your profit will grow along with your confident.

Simple system with simple rules. I like to keep it simple. No point of having the most complex system when simple system can have the same result. With this system you will be out of the market most of the time. This is because you will only be taking the big move and avoiding the small move and market noise.

Last advise. Do not anticipate. Forex is not a game of inteligence eventhough this system at full swing will show you possible turning point. I am having a possible turning point for audusd at 0.7200 but I will not take it coz there will be market swing before the actual turn. Why wast time waiting for the big move when you can actually see when its going to move.

In the mean time, good luck for all of you. I will be back once my pc is online again. At the moment I am posting this on a laptop. I dont like laptop, too small keypad, makes it hard to do speed typing.

TRADING ONLY WITH MOVING AVERAGE

At the moment I am rather busy. Moving to a new place and house. The house still needs a lot of work. As a result, I do not have time to update this blog. Trading is still going on but on a shorter timeframe. Result is consistent now. AudUsd is very kind at the moment with no sudden movement.

In the next few weeks I will show you how to trade using only MA. As usual what works for me may not work for you. This is because some of you may not be able to follow the rules of the game.

RULES OF THE GAME
1. Trade based on your capital and the time that you have. The bigger your capital the longer the TF. The more time you have the longer the TF. Vice versa.

2. Only trade at the direction pointed by the MA pairs. If the MA pairs is showing mixed direction, do not trade. The MA pairs must be pointing at the same direction.

3. If a trade suddenly change direction, do not hesitate to close it at a loss and turn the trade. This is the hardest part where most of you failed. Free your mind or become a loser all your life.

4. Keep in mind, there is no such thing as winning all the time. Just make sure you win a lot more than you lose. In the end your profit will grow along with your confident.

Simple system with simple rules. I like to keep it simple. No point of having the most complex system when simple system can have the same result. With this system you will be out of the market most of the time. This is because you will only be taking the big move and avoiding the small move and market noise.

Last advise. Do not anticipate. Forex is not a game of inteligence eventhough this system at full swing will show you possible turning point. I am having a possible turning point for audusd at 0.7200 but I will not take it coz there will be market swing before the actual turn. Why wast time waiting for the big move when you can actually see when its going to move.

In the mean time, good luck for all of you. I will be back once my pc is online again. At the moment I am posting this on a laptop. I dont like laptop, too small keypad, makes it hard to do speed typing.

Catching The Run To 71.00

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Did you ride the recent run in the AUDJPY to 71?I was lucky enough to grab and hold a chunk at 65.62 and I'm pondering whether or not I want to let it go.We've just had a double top on the 15 minute chart. The 1 hour is oversold. I think we are going to get some bounces upward due to exuberance, but it seems about time for a pullback.I've sold off the nibbles I also acquired on the way up. I

Last Week's Results

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

I can hardly believe it myself, but last week my NAV gains totaled 97.5%, which is entirely incredible. Too bad I'm such a small participant.No, unfortunately, this had nothing to do with my recent forays into developing an expert advisor. It seems that I've stumbled across some charting factors that provide me some measure of insight into market movements.The market doesn't always behave, but

ITS NOT THE SYSTEM

Thursday, March 12, 2009

After more than 2 years of trading, I can tell you a story about forex system. Forex system is a way to trade to have higher chances of profit. Unfortunately not all forex system works. This is because its not the system that is not working. It is you.

What if I tell you that I have a system that consist of Moving Average only. The system can make profit and will minimize you loses or even give you a chance to break even during hard times.

You would be thirll to test it out only to find out that in the end you are losing money and you say the system is crap. The truth is if one person is making money using the exact same system yet you are losing money. So where do you think the fault is? Is it with the system or is it with yourself?

You can never gain profit in Forex until you figure out what is wrong with you. Most of the time when you are losing money you would blame it on the market, news, system etc but never on yourself. Until you figure out what you did wrong, any system no matter how good will fail in your hands. After you realize what you did wrong, then you can make money, seriously.

When you know what not to do, you can trade without any indicator. I myself is trading using only MA now. Took me a while to understand but once you see it, you no longer depending on any indicator. It is your judgement that counts.

I never know what I would learn the further I go in this world or Forex. Right now I am starting to understand why some traders trade without any indicator. The best indicator is in your brain. You just need to develope it. It will take some time. No hurry.

ITS NOT THE SYSTEM

After more than 2 years of trading, I can tell you a story about forex system. Forex system is a way to trade to have higher chances of profit. Unfortunately not all forex system works. This is because its not the system that is not working. It is you.

What if I tell you that I have a system that consist of Moving Average only. The system can make profit and will minimize you loses or even give you a chance to break even during hard times.

You would be thirll to test it out only to find out that in the end you are losing money and you say the system is crap. The truth is if one person is making money using the exact same system yet you are losing money. So where do you think the fault is? Is it with the system or is it with yourself?

You can never gain profit in Forex until you figure out what is wrong with you. Most of the time when you are losing money you would blame it on the market, news, system etc but never on yourself. Until you figure out what you did wrong, any system no matter how good will fail in your hands. After you realize what you did wrong, then you can make money, seriously.

When you know what not to do, you can trade without any indicator. I myself is trading using only MA now. Took me a while to understand but once you see it, you no longer depending on any indicator. It is your judgement that counts.

I never know what I would learn the further I go in this world or Forex. Right now I am starting to understand why some traders trade without any indicator. The best indicator is in your brain. You just need to develope it. It will take some time. No hurry.

Sample MQ4 Code

Saturday, March 7, 2009

Here is a bit of code that demonstrates what I've been blogging about. It's a simple way to manage pending position requests. The idea is that a signal his been raised but that this code will let you wait for an improvement in the price before actually opening a position.// *******************************************************************// Name: AMS_PEND.MQ4// Date: 01-Mar-2009// Prog: Rookie

Expert Adviser Weekend

Finally, the weekend is almost here. I've been stealing a few moments here and there during the week but it's not that productive.Basically, I've limited myself to testing various "opening" strategies. What I've found is that I can increase earnings across the test set -- but generally at the expense of a bigger draw down. I'd like to come up with a system that tests out a tripling of the

EA Development by Component

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Okay, I've got a few EA components under my belt now.First, I've made myself a trivial system to determine potential entry points. Basically, this system raises a signal when the price is above or below a moving average for some period of time and then crosses over. Remember, I'm only concerned about making an easy to manage framework at this point.Second, signals raised above are tossed into a

EA Development

Monday, March 2, 2009

I was able to put some serious effort into developing an expert adviser over the weekend. At this stage I believe I can build something that will be both relatively safe and profitable. This is not an easy task!Anyway, I do want to assure you that I have no intention of ever selling an EA. If it works I'll use it for myself. If it doesn't work, then I'd have nothing worth selling in any case.

Programming An EA

Thursday, February 26, 2009

I'm finding it takes a lot more time to program an EA than I would expect. Alternately, perhaps I am dumb enough to think that I could just throw together some ideas and have a profit machine?Anyway, after another night of testing I have some new software that is able to detect or indicate various conditions.I'm hoping that doing enough visual testing will clue me in enough, personally, to the

MT4 - Moving Average Crossover

Believe it or not I think I'm going to use a simple moving average crossover as a signal for my automated trading system.Obviously, and testing verifies this, there are two issues to manage:1) Getting whipsawed.2) Entering the trend too late.I believe that I can at least alleviate these issues somewhat. Technical indicators can provide clues about whether or not the market is currently trending

Ongoing MT4 Development

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

As I develop and test more expert advisers I see just how tricky it is to translate common sense into a series of hard and fast rules.In short, my adviser does stupid things!When I trade Forex on my own I'll combine a "feel" for the current situation along with some technical indicators. For example, in recent times, if something funny is going on, then the market I'm trading almost always takes

A DIFFICULT MARKET CONDITION

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

It is not looking particularly well for GBPUSD. In the other hand, EURUSD and AUDUSD is looking good for a long term trade. I am taking the long position. It may take a very long time to profit but looking at the chart from a technical view, EURUSD and AUDUSD is in a good position for a long term trading.

I dont exactly know the entry point but I do know the direction. It is time to monitor the shorter time frame in order to find the best possible entry and to minimize stop loss.

It may take sometime but I dont care. I have been waiting for this moment almost 2 months. Look at the charts and see the formation of daily, 4 hour, 30 minute and 5 minute. You may see something that took me over 2 years to see.

Only time can tell if my calculation is correct. At the moment I am still waiting for the 5 minute chart to give and entry signal.

Good luck to us all.

A DIFFICULT MARKET CONDITION

It is not looking particularly well for GBPUSD. In the other hand, EURUSD and AUDUSD is looking good for a long term trade. I am taking the long position. It may take a very long time to profit but looking at the chart from a technical view, EURUSD and AUDUSD is in a good position for a long term trading.

I dont exactly know the entry point but I do know the direction. It is time to monitor the shorter time frame in order to find the best possible entry and to minimize stop loss.

It may take sometime but I dont care. I have been waiting for this moment almost 2 months. Look at the charts and see the formation of daily, 4 hour, 30 minute and 5 minute. You may see something that took me over 2 years to see.

Only time can tell if my calculation is correct. At the moment I am still waiting for the 5 minute chart to give and entry signal.

Good luck to us all.

MT4 Programming

Monday, February 23, 2009

I love the fact that I can program the MT4 system. However, wouldn't it be nice if there was documentation in English? Well, yes, there is some, but it obviously wasn't written by somebody who speaks it fluently.Anyway, I spent much of the weekend fooling around with some custom expert advisers. One or two had promise, but obviously if it was easy to do then everyone would be doing it. It

Automated Forex Trading Robot

Thursday, February 19, 2009

I've signed up for a second account. This one is at a broker that uses a dealing desk and an MT4 based trading platform.Why?Because I write software for a living. Because I sometimes have a decided lack of discipline. Because my life is stressful and I don't need to be glued to my screen worrying about charts, margins and limits.No, really, it's because I'd like to think that I can create a

UPDATE

Thursday, February 12, 2009

This blog has not been regularly updated. This is due to internet connection problem. It has been months now and my internet connection is still not up to 100% fitness level. I can post text but I cannot upload pictures or any attachment. I even opted to use my office internet during the day for my uploads.

As for forex I am playing the short term game. 5 minute TF to be exact. It is much safer since my internet is not stable. Its a intraday system trading the 30 minute trend with a 5 minute signal for entry and exit. So far so good.

Actually the system is simple. It is based on MA and RSI only. Even trading is simple for me nowadays. It seems that experience changes me. I am no longer sitting in front of the PC hoping for miracle. There is no miracle in Forex. It is just knowledge and study so that the direction can be expected.

The longer I trade the more I understand. After all I am still learning with every trade. Now I understand how people can trade from candlestick alone. This is because the best indicator is not on the screen but in your head. Use your brain, the best indicator of all.

By the way just wanted to invite you to my flickr page. Just an old hobby given new life with a new DSLR A350. Now I have 3 camera, each one with its own unique features. Do check out my flicr page and tell me if you like my photography style. Just needed to find a model for my portrait shot.

Back to Forex its in ranging mode now but the daily chart is showing a weakness is trend. EU is a downtrend but is weakening at the moment. 30m chart is still showing a downtrend at the moment with 5m chart is supporting it. So for today the best bet is to short EU but watch out for the long term trade.

Infrequent Nibbles

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

I'm getting into this small position size infrequent trading style.For example, with a pittance of my capital at risk I am earning nearly a 5% annual return. What am I trading? I'm holding the ever popular AUDJPY carry trade pair of course.Even with the recent wildfires in Australia I really don't see them falling off the map completely. Come on, realistically, how low can their dollar sink?

Not Enough Time To Trade

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Well, my days have become very busy as of late. I go to work early, come home late, and need to get some sleep when I am not swamped with the normal day to day duties of life. I need time to cook and clean, pay the bills, service the car, look after my home, watch the superbowl, do laundry, and so on.While I've been making money I certainly am not making enough money to hire someone to look

FREE FOREX SIGNAL - NOT REALLY

Monday, January 26, 2009

When people say free forex signal, it refer to an instruction to trade specific currency pair at a certain price. Normally this signal is based on the trader study and experience. It is more of a personal view of things to come.

In certain cases the signal does work. In a different situation, it fails. This is because the person giving that signal is also a small trader. His study is based on either technical or fundamental with no real money to back it up.

If that person is good, he will have enough followers and the total money traded towards his signal will back him up and make the currency move. If that person have very few followers, then he is swimming alone in a sea full of sharks.

That is what most of us do. We do not coordinate and we work alone in forex. Thats why the sharks are taking their time and making easy picking of us, swallowing one at a time. It doesnt sounds good but its the truth. Now you dont have to wonder why most people fails and why banks keep on making huge profit.

If you want to take forex signal, take it from someone who you can trust from inside the banks. They have a lot more info and study on forex. The amount of info, knowlegde, manpower and money is impossible for any of us to compete.

For some people who manage to find a method to be profitable in forex, its a good thing. You have found a way to take advantage of the system. The system after all is developed by human and human by itself is full of weaknesses.

For those of you who is losing, its time to think about swimming alone is a sea of sharks. Time to find friends and help each other out in terms of knowledge and money power.

Dont get me wrong, I am in profit today. I have found a way to take advantage of the system though its like a mouse, stealing food one little bit at a time. Better to profit a little than losing all the time but for how long are you willing to be the small fish. Always jumping in and out of trade. Hoping for the trend to hold long enough for you to gain a little profit.

In order for me to grow in forex, I need to team up. It has long been in my mind, just looking for the right opportunity and people. Anyone here think the same?

ALL IS DOWN

Saturday, January 24, 2009

GbpUsd is not going up, celcom 3g is not getting better. Trading is getting slower. Looking at the daily chart GU is still a downtrend. Only time will tell in the mean time I stumble upon a system worth looking into. Its not mine but it is beautifully created taking into account the strength of trend. A style that is safe to me.

Trend has it momentum, when you enter when the momentum is strong enough the price will continue it course. Thats how you profit as a small fish

GU IS CLIMBING

Monday, January 12, 2009

In my long last post I mentioned I was waiting for 1.4650 level. It did reach and a bit more down. At the moment it is at 1.5000. Its a slow climb and looking at daily chart it is still a downtrend but if it maintain its course, it will go uptrend soon.

Still having trouble with internet. Celcom 3G is not as stable as it used to be. I cannot upload and having trouble login to forex account. Anyone else having problem with Celcom 3G??

Fundamental Conjecture

Friday, January 9, 2009

Something to keep in mind when you consider where the currency markets will be heading in 2009.It appears that the Obama stimulus package will contain a $250,000 write off for business expenses. This is huge. Smaller businesses, when generating expenses, are not generally spending their money outside of the US. Vehicles, machinery, tools, raw goods or whatever else is eligible for this tax

Trading A Longer Timeframe

FOREX RethinkThough I've been trading the AUDJPY on a 15m chart quite a bit, and with reasonable success, I am thinking about moving to a larger time frame. Well, to be accurate, it's not so much that I plan to use a different chart. What I really want to do is accumulate positions over a longer period of time.Do you know why?Because, if I can accumulate a bunch of positions that are at some

 
 
 
 
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