AUD/JPY Trading Review

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Guess what. Some of the books that I bought have had an impact on my trading. I know, I hear the phrase "No shit, Sherlock" echoing out there. However, so many of the Internet generation want everything to be fast, easy and online that I just have to stress the value of more formal information.I bet you'd also be surprised to hear how many traders are starting out in their teenage years. It's


Wednesday, November 26, 2008

At the moment, majoriti of pairs are struggling to break the trend. From my analysis, only EurJpy and AudJpy have broken the trend. The rest will be in ranging mode until the trend is broken.

AudJpy @ 61.70
EurJpy @ 123.80

Those are entry point for short. Those are guideline only. You should be looking for better entry unless you have the guts for -ve pips

The rest of the pairs are ranging at the moment until the trendline broken. Do enter at will but no long term trade. Scalping mode from now on until a new trend is born.

Good luck


Sometimes it happen but this is one rare ocassion and I am really stunned. I was holding a long position on GJ. I am in profit of about 100 pip with a stop loss of 50 pip from my entry point. Guess what. The market turned down 150 pip in one move, hit my stop loss and now its flying.

This has nothing to do with the broker, it is just the market is cruel. No matter who, you will get hit sooner or later. In order to hit me, the market has to move 150 pip againts the trend. What an honour I must say. 150 pip is much more than most people TP.

Enough said, all pairs should have a steady climb from now on. If you are holding long at the moment, make it long term.


Sunday, November 23, 2008

Spent sometime at the beach yesterday. Taking a few pictures here and there. I have cropped the pictures into a widescreen wallpaper. Maybe some of you may like it. Its not a professional job but for me its ok.


Friday, November 21, 2008

Its Friday and time to get lost. If any of you still holding long position from this morning, its time to close it and get lost. Go get yourself lost in a pub, disco or something.

Im going off now. See you next week.

Btw, 500 pip move by GJ is unbelieveable but its Friday, anything goes on friday


I am thinking of uploading my system to the internet so that it will be available for everyone. It will only be the basic system. The rest you have to figure out yourself.

Can anyone tell me where is the best place to upload and share files. I intend to upload a MT4 template and a text document explaining how it works.

Suggestion anyone??


As I said before, Friday is not a good day to trade but what if you have a signal to reverse everthing on Friday morning. Will you take it?

AUDUSD did drop down an enormous amount. I hope some of you profit from it as I posted earlier asking you to find a place to short as good as humanly possible. Now its changing direction. Unfortunately it happen on friday morning. As we all know, Friday is for those short term trader to take their profit. Money will flow out of the market leaving it with a very low trading volume. Anything can happen on Friday.

Trade on your own risk

Forex For The Small Speculator

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Today was a banner day for me... trading the AUD/JPY with a return of more than 10% NAV. The market simply walked up and down my trend lines bringing me profits with every pass. How come this doesn't happen more often?Anyway, as a small time speculator I thought I'd outline some issues that we face compared to some of the larger traders:We trade in very small lot sizesTo make any meaningful

Getting A Forex Education - Forex Books

Sunday, November 16, 2008

How many of us in the Forex market simply jumped in the market and started trading? I know that was my path. I tossed a few dollars in an account and figured losing it would be a paid lesson in how the markets work.I can't say that this hasn't been a valuable path. I've learned some good lessons along the way:it's important to let go of losses early so you have enough capital to sink your


Saturday, November 15, 2008

Personally after almost 3 years of trading, I found that friday is not a good day to trade. This is true especially at night. So adviceable not to trade late during NY time.

Yesterday was a mixed bag. I hope some of you have closed the post when in profit as the market swings in both direction.


Friday, November 14, 2008

One of my students followed my trade. That is his post. For a gain of 155 pip live trading. Who can complaint


Last nite jump was expected but GBPUSD never made it big. Only EURUSD and AUDUSD manage to jump big enough. EURUSD was screaming long from early morning yesterday while AUDUSD make the last minute move.

From a long term perspective. AUDUSD is in a good position for a short position. This is a long term strategy and may require you to have high tolerence toward -ve pips.

So the signal is to short AUDUSD and AUDJPY at the best position as humanly possible. This trade may run up to weeks if not months. So prepare your account for long term holding of post.

Good luck


Thursday, November 13, 2008

Looking at the charts this morning, I have a very strong feeling that GBPUSD will make a reverse soon. The move will be significant enough for a reverse trade. I have closed all my short post last night. Dont get me wrong, all these pairs are still on a downtrend but the correction is going to be huge.

Only time will tell. Good luck


Wednesday, November 12, 2008

I test Zulutrade as a signal provider. So far so good but I must say 1 thing. FXCM is no good. Spread is extra wide. Carry trade pays so little but get charged so much. Its a losing situation.


Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Busy with a new toy. Sony a350. 14.2 Megapixel Digital SLR. Much better than my old Konica Minolta 7MP. Btw all short post is closed now. Market is going to be crazy for a while.


Monday, November 10, 2008

My position late friday ended up in break even. It seems the market has turned over the weekend. This is a rare situation but sometimes it happens. In forex everything is possible.

Monday morning. The currency that is most volatile is GBP, EUR and CAD. I will not talk on CAD since I dont trade it. For GBP and EUR, it has grown in strength. Market has turned and the trade is now to long GBP and EUR pairs.

I would be looking for opportunity to long GBPJPY and EURJPY. These are the pairs that shown significant trend turn that long position from now on will have a higher chance of profit.

At the moment all GBP and EUR pairs are making a correction. If support level holds, take your long entry on next low.

Good luck


Sunday, November 9, 2008

This is one thing that I hate most. A lot of people asking for my trading system. I know what they are going to do with it. They will take the hard work of many years, code it into an expert advisor and let it run on automatic trade.

For those of you who already has a succesfull system, you may share similliar view. Unfortunately for those who are still looking for a profitable way to trade, this is one of their easiest option. I dont blame them, creating a profitable system is not an easy task. It takes years to develop and test a system with no guarantee of success.

For those of you still looking for a way to be profitable in forex, there are system available on the internet. One of them is Zulutrade. Zulutrade is a place where signal providers (like me) test out their trade system with thousands of traders. It like a competition for traders. Good news is people can open an account and pick which signal providers they want to auto trade their account. Best thing is, its free. Yes, its free. You dont have to pay 30% of your profit to your account manager.

I personally never have used their system but am trying to register as a signal provider. Those of you can try it out if you want. All you have to do is open an account with them. Fund the account and pick which signal providers you want. Dont take my word for it. You have to go to Zulutrade and investigate yourself. Remember its your money.


Saturday, November 8, 2008

When I started to venture into the world of forex, there are a few local traders that I knew. They are either seasoned or newbie like me back then but now it seems that most of them are gone. They are no longer in the land of forex and they are doing something else.

It seems the saying is true. Most people will not survive the 1st 6 months in forex. Those who survive the 1st 6 months will have a tough 2 years. Some people lasted longer but they no longer trade. They have become and IB living on commission. One person whom I know doing that is henrycarol. Before he was an IB for Northfinance, now he is an IB for a different broker. Personally I do not think he trade anymore. This is because the commission is too small compared to profit in forex. If you cannot profit, then your option is taking commission on volume traded by others.

I am heading to my 3rd year in forex. I survived this long by controlling my loss. You cannot win all the time in forex but make sure when you lose, you loss is small. When you win, make sure its big. There will come a time when you have series of losses but those losses can easily be recovered with one big win.

At the moment I am managing an account. Its a loss account where the owner already given up hope. It has a very small margin. Apart from that there are 3 more offers. All of it with the amount of over RM20,000.00. All these offers came from people who have actually watch me trade. I now know that account statement means very little. People wants to see how you trade and they want to see you are winning in front of them.

At the moment my trade system have reached it 3rd revision. I have 2 students at the moment but unfortunately for newbie, the amount of information they have to digest is too much. They easily get lost in it. The hardest part is not the amount of information but following orders. Any system in the world will have specific instruction. It seems that humans are very bad at following instructions. It is in our nature. No matter how simple my system is, there will always be times when people do not follow the rules and human like to blame others on their mistakes.

Enough of that. My last signal actually survive the spike of the rate cut. If anyone following that, you will be in profit or break even. The rest of the pair didnt survive the spike.

At the moment I am holding 2 post that is:
1. Short EURUSD @ 1.2830
2. Short AUDUSD @ 0.6670

One of my students followed me during the trade late friday. Hopefully we will see a trend continuation and the above trade will generate hundreds of pip if not thousand next week. Good luck to all of you. Keep on learning and someday you will be there.

October Nonfarm Payroll (Consensus Estimate: -200,000 to -250,000 Jobs)

Friday, November 7, 2008

The September jobs report was rather gloomy as U.S. employers cut payrolls at the steepest rate in five-and-a-half years. An unexpectedly high 159,000 jobs were slashed as employment thinned for a ninth straight month, strongly suggesting the economy may be in recession.

The unemployment rate was unchanged from August at 6.1 percent—the highest rate since the colossal 212,000 job decline in March 2003—as 121,000 people left the workforce.

Job cuts were across the board in September following revised losses of 73,000 jobs in August and 67,000 in July, showing an acceleration of decline in employment. Nearly 51,000 manufacturing jobs were lost last month on top of 56,000 cut in August, bringing the total number of consecutive months in which manufacturers slashed their payrolls to 27.

For week ending November 1, the Labor Department reported that the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 481,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 485,000. They also reported a four-week moving average of 477,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised average of 477,000.

Despite September's dismal numbers, total job losses remain historically low based on revisions to July and August data. The economy has lost nearly 750,000 jobs since employment peaked in December 2007, which is when many economists say a recession began. By contrast, however, payrolls fell an astounding 1.63 million during the period between March and November 2001 in the recession of that year, and continued falling for almost a full two more years, bringing the total amount of jobs lost to 2.7 million.

Given that the labor market typically lags the broader economic cycle, however, there is little doubt that the worse is yet to come as the economy's cyclical downturn continues.

Now that the presidential election is over, focus is sure to shift back to economic matters. All eyes will be on this week's NFP which—if consensus numbers are accurate—will almost certainly hasten the decline of U.S. equities and give a strong boost to U.S. treasuries, boding well for the greenback.

What is the NFP report?

Of all the world monthly economic reports, the monthly U.S. Non Farm Report (NFP) is the most highly anticipated and has the most dramatic impact on the currency market.

The report, which is released on the first Friday of each month and states the previous month's numbers, provides detailed industry data on employment, hours and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state of the US market as well as the direction that the economy is heading.

What's more, the employment numbers provided by the report are used by the Fed to shape their interest rate policies. The health of the U.S. economy and interest rates translate to the strength or weakness of the U.S. dollar.

Risk with News Trading

As with all major economic releases, there could be significant price volatility with this announcement. Currency spreads will typically widen just before the release and will remain wide for a few minutes after. If the announcement is a shock to the consensus estimate, the price of the currency pair could gap significantly. For example, the price on the EURUSD trading at 1.2820 - 1.2822 just before release could gap up 60 pips to 1.2880 - 1.2882, without any available prices available between the price of 1.2820 and 1.2882. A Buy Stop placed before the announcement at 1.2830 would turn into a Market Order and would be filled at the prevailing price 1.2882. The same would be true with a Sell Stop.

Approximately four years ago we saw a gap of approximately 200 pips on the GBPUSD on a Non-Farm Payroll announcement. While this is an extreme example, it nevertheless is a possibility with trading during economic announcements. Consequently, plan on the spreads widening and, if you are trading with a Buy or a Sell Stop entry order, do not anticipate being filled at your entry price. You will be filled at the prevailing market price after the release, which could be significantly different from your desired price of your entry order.

Please be advised that due to the volatility of price fluctuations during the news, it is possible to see a delay in execution due to the additional verification necessary for each trade.

Article from IBFX. It seems news trading is not a good option if you do not know the news before it breaks out


Thursday, November 6, 2008

Signal 1
Long AUDUSD @ 0.6720 or better
SL 0.6680
TP on your own

Signal 2
Long GBPJPY @ 154.80 or better
SL 154.10
TP on your own


Wednesday, November 5, 2008

This morning after looking at a bunch of chart, I have selected GBPUSD as trade of the day. GBP is weaker compare to other currencies. It would be much better to short it. At the moment hovering around 1.5960 and waiting for a confirmation to trade. Watch out for it.


Tuesday, November 4, 2008

It seems that the rabbit hole is far indeed. It has moved too far that the trend has turned but now its time for a reverse trade. I am not going to give you a signal but fyi, GU, GJ and GCHF is going long now.

Volume has been very low for the whole day. A long signal presented itself but with no volume to support it, its not turning. With such a low volume, pairs just slide with the trend. No trade for me anymore. I have ate my stop loss today.


Monday, November 3, 2008

As usual its Monday morning, but unlike before this morning its a fast mover. As usual forex class started at 9am. Who entered the morning class should be in profit by now. I personally got 100 pips off EJ. Now I am not trading anymore. Monday morning got a lot of work to be done. See you again at 3pm.


As promised earlier. I am trading again at 3pm. This time the signal is not as favourable as in the morning. We have here is a short signal in an uptrend formation. Still it is tradeable but the level of risk is higher.

In the chart there are 2 symbol of hands pointing up and down.
Hand pointing up:
1. Time: 9am Malaysian time
2. Signal: MA cross and RSI>50
3. Trend: Uptrend formation. This is easy picking. I entered 5 minutes earlier and exit 100 pip later. I could have followed the trend but due to office work on monday morning I cannot monitor it. An early exit of 100 pip on Monday morning is not a bad trade.

Hand pointing down:
1. Time: 3pm Malaysian Time
2. Signal: MA cross and RSI=50
3. Trend: Uptrend formation. This is a hard trade. Short signal on an uptrend formation. This trade most probably be a short one. At the time of writing, SL has been moved +10 pips. So I am at a profitable position now. Let see how far the rabbit hole goes.

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