A Piece Of the Puzzle

Saturday, February 23, 2008

By this April, I would have spend 2 years studying forex. By far this is the hardest thing to understand. Compare to a pc, I learned to assemble a pc and isntall windows in only one day, learned to install car sound system in 3 hours. Forex 2 years is like just waking up from sleep and still in bed. Thats is to compare how hard forex is. If anyone out there tells you forex is easy, then he never traded before. Btw, the title of the blog is just of SEO.

Forex is very difficult to understand. What we can do to survive is to come up with a plan. A plan is based on behaviour pattern. At certain condition, the market will behave the same way most of the time. Today I will show you a piece of a puzzle showing that forex market behave the same most of the time at certain condition. If you can anticipate its behaviour, I am sure you can make money of it.

This a 4 hour chart of Gbp/Usd. The yellow circle indicates where RSI 8 crossed below 22 or above 78. 6 out of 7 times, whenever RSI crossed the extreme level, it will retrace big enough to gain profit. Only once the price remain the same. Currently RSI is at extreme level, so a drop is expected next week. A behaviour if can be anticipated can bring profit. Use it wisely.

Finding Top

Friday, February 22, 2008

Difficult to find the top. Anyway try this out

Short EU @ 1.4807 or better
Very close to the top.

Potential AUD/JPY Double Top

Thursday, February 21, 2008

It's hard to say whether it will complete or not, but the 1hr chart is showing the potential to make a nice visible double top by the end of today.As I'm sure my readers know... the AUD has had a nice run lately based on speculation that the RBA will be raising interest rates. However, the AUD/JPY pair has bounced back from attempts to get beyond 99.60 during this week.We should start to expect

Forex Reflections

Sunday, February 17, 2008

Saturday is a good time to reflect on Forex activities.What did the markets do? What did I do? How much cooperation was there between these actions as measured by achievement of my goals?As time passes, and I actively trade, I'm starting to notice trends. The entry points that cause me the most stress, that I end up regretting or being put in a position where I'm forced to make decisions, are

Bernanke's Signal

Friday, February 15, 2008

I think the Bernanke signal I highlighted a while back is batting 100% right now. You did catch the markets tanking because he was speaking to congress, right?When Ben speaks... markets tank. It seems you can Bernanke on it.

Piliharaya ke 12. Siapa Menang? Siapa Kalah? Siapa Tuan? Siapa Kuli? Siapa Mereka? Siapa Kita?

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Teka teki pilihanraya sudah terjawab. Sekarang adalah masa untuk kita menunjukkan kuasa . Kuasa yang paling besar diberikan kepada kita untuk kita gunakan sekali sahaja dalam masa 4 tahun.

Pada masa ini ramai penghasut, pemujuk , penipu, penyibuk, kaki ampu, kaki carut dan macam-macam lagi bangsa manusia akan muncul dengan hanya satu harapan , iaitu memilih mereka atau parti mereka untuk memerintah.

Siapakah yang patut menerajui pucuk pimpinan negara kita. Adakah Barisan Nasional yang telah memerintah selama 50 tahun mampu memuaskan semua orang yang ada dimalaysia. Adakah parti pembangkang dengan isu-isu yang ada mampu menumbangkan Barisan Nasional.

Harus diingat . Kedua-duanya adalah parti politik. Dunia politik penuh dengan kekotoran, Penipuan , Janji-janji palsu.Cuba nak pancing undi....Bila sudah memerintah ....anda akan kenal siapa mereka sebenarnya.... Rasuah sana, rasuah sini, Skandal sana, skandal sini. ...Berlagak tak ingat macam dia manusia paling hebat didunia.... Masa inilah kita nak tunjuk siapa hebat....YB ke atau rakyat.....

Hebat mana sangat mereka ni....Gaji YB dan menteri bukannya besar...Kalau di singapura boleh mencecah RM 1 juta setahun. Dimalaysia, makcik yang jual nasi lemak kat Kampung Baru pendapatan dia lagi besar dari YB dan menteri....

Fikirkan, bayangkan....Gaji tak sebesar mana tetapi mampu pakai Mercedes Benz yang terbaru... Rumah macam Istana.... Makan di Hotel 5 dan 6 bintang. Bukan hanya yang bernaung dibawah dacing...Yang bernaung dibawah bulan pun sama....

Macam mana boleh jadi begitu....Ada kuasa, ada peluang....gunakan kuasa untuk rebut peluang = Salah guna Kuasa.Hak rakyat diketepikan...yang penting semua hak rakyat boleh jadi hak sendiri, adik beradik...anak beranak.....Mereka Semua Sama.....siapa yang susah....KITA DAN KELUARGA KITA JUGA YANG SUSAH......

Apa kata kita pakat ramai-ramai .....semua tak keluar mengundi...Agaknya apa akan jadi....Rasanya bulan, roket, dacing dan bulan sabit cacat akan duduk semeja, makan termenung sebab tak ada kerja... Sudah pasti mereka akan menangis berguling-guling memikirkan banyak lagi projek yang tak dapat dijalankan....Mungkin ada bekas YB yang akan merangkak dari rumah kerumah minta sedekah ....suruh keluar mengundi ..MESTI SERONOK DAPAT BUAT MACAM NI ....KITA DUDUK RAMAI-RAMAI gelakkan mereka.....Dah puas hati dalam sebulan....kita dah tunjukkan hak kita...KUASA, PERPADUAN, KETIDAKPUASHATIAN.....barulah mereka tahu siapa mereke....apa keje mereka....mereka WAKIL RAKYAT....bukannya TUAN KEPADA RAKYAT...



Daily Forex Overview

Monday, February 11, 2008

The U.S. dollar, coming off one of its best weeks against the euro in months and probably will consolidate those gains this week after the Group of Seven leading industrial nations provided little new guidance on exchange rates.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet warned against betting that the central bank would soon join the U.S. Federal Reserve in cutting rates.

The EURUSD has dropped over 350 pips since the beginning of the week. Economic data and the European Central Bank's admission that the economy could weaken further has caused many traders to believe that the next move by the ECB will be to cut rates and not to raise them.

US wholesale inventories rose 1.1% in December, and November was revised up from 0.6% to 0.8%.

With no major economic data released today, the British pound recovered marginally against the US dollar.

The Australian dollar was higher late Monday as hawkish sentiment from the Reserve Bank of Australia bolstered expectations of further interest rate rises, lending support for carry trades.

Canada's dollar rose versus the U.S. currency from 1.0105 to 0.9947 after a government report showed employers added more jobs in January than economists forecast.


The market expects German growth to slow from an annualized pace of 2.5 percent to 1.8 percent and for Euro zone growth to slow from 2.7 to 2.2 percent. Meanwhile Switzerland released stronger numbers. The SECO consumer climate index and consumer prices both beat expectations.

This week there are a lot of UK economic data on the calendar, which means that there will be decent volatility in the pound. We are expecting producer prices, consumer prices, trade balance, employment data and the Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report. Inflation should be strong, but the labor market is expected to deteriorate further given the strains in the housing and financial markets.

The European Central Bank has effectively eliminated its tightening bias and with the economy weakening quickly, the ECB's first rate cut could be delivered as early as April.

Furthermore, the technical picture has begun to change and the arrow is now pointing upwards on EURUSD.

Reserve Bank of Australia warns it might have to raise rates yet again to slow domestic demand.

Financial markets in Tokyo will be closed on Monday for a national holiday and the Bank of Japan will announce its interest decisions on Friday and widely to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5%.

No Time? No Problem!

Sunday, February 10, 2008

I'm a lot busier than I was. I no longer have time to watch the forex markets full time in pursuit of profits.So, as you can imagine, I've developed a new trading strategy.A good way to figure out when to attempt to enter the AUDJPY is when the 1hr chart shows the price hitting or dropping below the lower Bollinger band. It won't always bounce up from that point, but very often it does.Armed

Market Preview For The Week Ahead

Monday, February 4, 2008

Following the mixed US data last week, markets will continue to try to assess the US recession risks and whether the economy is already in recession. The PMI data on Friday suggested that the economy was not in recession, but the fact that weakness has been focussed in construction will maintain serious doubts, especially after the weak payroll data.

In this context, the PMI index for the manufacturing data on Tuesday will be watched very closely. A figure close to December’s level would cast further doubts on recession. The jobless claims data will also be watched very closely on Thursday after the big jump claims seen last week.

The Wall Street trends will be watched closely with a particular focus on the bond insurers. The bid activity last week and hopes for support measures for the bond insurers suggest that risk tolerances could improve slightly this week which would also provide support for carry trades, especially if volatility levels ease. Markets will still be very cautious and any improvement could easily prove to be very tempoary

Caution is required as any respite in fears over US recession would tend to support the dollar while an easing of risk aversion would weaken it. The net trend looks to be slightly dollar supportive after the performance on Friday.

Interest rate decisions within Europe will be a very important influence over the second half of the week with the Bank of England and ECB both set to announce their rate decisions on Thursday. Assuming the ECB holds rates steady, the statement and comments from Trichet will be watched very closely for hints on future policy.

There are very strong expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates this week. If so, the bank will release a statement and this will be watched closely for hints on policy over the next few months.

The Australian interest rate decision is due on Tuesday local time amid expectations of an increase. Again, the statement from the Reserve Bank as well as the decision will be very important for sentiment.

Kramer's Bottom Call

Friday, February 1, 2008

I take heart in the fact that Kramer has called a bottom.Although there is a lot of volatility I am hoping that over time I'll be able to build and protect a sizable AUDJPY position. You see, as you get positions in profit and place stop losses in to protect them, you get to start again with respect to risk. Also, as the profits rise, you can start to get positions that are funded by locked in

Copyright © Forex Control