AUDJPY: Technical Analysis

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Well, my posts are few and far between these days.In case anyone else is still following long here is some good information on the 3hr AUDJPY.We have a nice symmetric triangle going all the way back to November 25th.See?I'm expecting this to break (upward) and then run into a downward sloping resistance line on the 1d AUDJPY. However, we'll have to wait and see. I've been wrong (more than a few

AUDJPY: Support Becomes Resistance

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

My last post showed a profitable overnight setup based on a week long support line on the 1hr chart.Here, I've got an example of a support becoming resistance once it has been violated.Take a look at the following 15min chart:See the violation around 9:00pm last night? As an aside, this was a good point to try a well protected short. Overnight we tested a longer term support line (see my

AUDJPY Forecast

Sunday, November 8, 2009

What the heck, I may as well jump out on a limb and let you know what I'm seeing with the AUDJPY.Basically, if you look at the chart, we've had a good support line since the beginning of November.Now, if I've got the right chart uploaded, take a look below:Personally, I'd suggest taking a long position when the price approaches the support line. You can set a nearby stop and protect yourself

AUDJPY: October Trend

Monday, October 19, 2009

The AUDJPY has been on an upward trajectory for a while now.There is no telling, at least not in advance, whether we'll see more massive upward movement due to hawkish statements from the RBA or not.However, here is a 3hr chart showing recent movements:Obviously, clear support and resistance helps identify some lower risk entry points.

Skeptical About The AUDJPY?

Friday, October 9, 2009

I'm sorry you feel that way. Perhaps after looking at the following chart snip you'll think that you may have missed the boat.See how the daily chart shows solid support since March? March! Hello, it's a little too late to be skeptical. The question you have to ask yourself is why has the AUDJPY been performing so well and how long will it continue to do so.On another note, I'm going to start

EURUSD: Weekend Analysis

Saturday, April 18, 2009

I don't generally trade the EURUSD but since it's the weekend I seem to have some extra time on my hands.Here are a series of charts, in varying timeframes, that I'd use to get a general feel for this currency pair.First, let's look at the 1D chart to see what's happened over the long term. I've compressed the chart a fair amount in order to get it to fit into a single snapshot -- you should be

AUDJPY: Some Upward Movement

Friday, April 17, 2009

Finally, after suggesting all day long that I'm looking for upward movement it's finally here.How long will it last? Who knows. Will it hit the top of my so-called consolidation zone? Don't know.Anyway, here's the latest from my chart...I'll be happiest if the pair zooms up like a rocket, but I'll lock in some profit if we get close to the resistance line.

AUDJPY: Still In Consolidation Range

I didn't have time to post another update during the day, but things have been pretty slow anyway.Here you can see that the AUDJPY has not yet broken out of the trend lines (that I have shown in early charts).I'm not sure what is going to happen during the Asian session, but as ever, I'm hoping for some bullish action.I'm sure you can see the market honoring the trend line by bouncing off it?

Betting Against The AUDJPY

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Well, with commodity prices spiraling down the toilet, it's a good time to be short of the AUDJPY.Look, put an SMA 20 on your AUDJPY chart. Load up the 1HR or 3HR chart. What direction is the simple moving average going?That's the trend.So, if the trend is your friend, what's the best direction to play?You guessed it in one... down!If you know how to draw a resistance line, or to put something

AUDJPY Technicals

Thursday, October 9, 2008

I'm looking at my AUDJPY trend line.We've seen some good movement, recovering from the recent meltdown in short order... probably due to the coordinated rate changes.While I like the move I think we're getting to the top of our current trading channel. How we handle the reversal, assuming there is soon to be one, will set the tone of the next couple of days.If we bounce back up on or before the

Seeing Beyond The Bailout

Saturday, October 4, 2008

Now that the US bailout package has been passed the question on everyone's mind is what happens next?Nobody knows. Conversely, everyone knows!Once the question of government action has been answered we know that the currency markets will move either up or down. Basically, the only time they are in near stasis is when speculators and investors need the next piece of information in order to

EURAUD Head And Shoulders?

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Are you a Forex carry trader?Don't look now but the EURAUD has completed two out of three components of a head and shoulders pattern on the hourlies.You might want to be on the lookout for this over the next several hours. If it activates it could spell a nice downward move for this carry pair.

Day Trading and Scalping

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Things are still going very well, but I have to admit I haven't been able to pick off huge gains this week. Not yet anyway.Here's the scoop...Sunday PM through Monday PM -- NAV +3.05%Tuesday AM though Tuesday PM -- NAV +2.93%This is okay, but I see large profits left on the table. It's strange, in order to make it easier to pick up pips I'm working on the 1M and 5M charts. This is pretty good

Learning To Love Stochastics

Sunday, June 8, 2008

Many of you trading in the Forex markets know that the difference between success and failure lies in the probabilities.What is the probability that your speculation will be correct?The more often that your positions are correct the more profitable you will be. This is part of the reason that so many bozos are busy promoting supposedly infallible commercial signals. Seriously, if their signals

Potential AUD/JPY Double Top

Thursday, February 21, 2008

It's hard to say whether it will complete or not, but the 1hr chart is showing the potential to make a nice visible double top by the end of today.As I'm sure my readers know... the AUD has had a nice run lately based on speculation that the RBA will be raising interest rates. However, the AUD/JPY pair has bounced back from attempts to get beyond 99.60 during this week.We should start to expect

No Time? No Problem!

Sunday, February 10, 2008

I'm a lot busier than I was. I no longer have time to watch the forex markets full time in pursuit of profits.So, as you can imagine, I've developed a new trading strategy.A good way to figure out when to attempt to enter the AUDJPY is when the 1hr chart shows the price hitting or dropping below the lower Bollinger band. It won't always bounce up from that point, but very often it does.Armed

Double Top Warning

Friday, January 25, 2008

It isn't here yet, and that means it may never arrive, but we are currently looking at a potential double top on the AUDJPY.This means that the DOW could also be poised to give up some recent gains.Obviously, the DOW can do what it wants, but if you are seeing gains right now and are thinking of jumping in, be wary.Personally, I'm hoping for the downturn. If it happens according to "my" chart

Earning While Sleeping or Catching The Top

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

This morning I wake up to verify that I've made about 30% of the NAV (net asset value) of my downside trading sub-account. Sweet!How did I do this?I have been charting the AUDJPY for several days. There is a clear down trend and at 7:30pm last night the price touched the top of the trend. From there I'd been able to accumulate short positions, setting protective stop losses before opening up

Thursday's Bernanke Dive

Friday, January 18, 2008

Well, as per my previous post, Bernanke maintains his negative signal status.I'm happy to say I was trading the AUDJPY downwards today. I don't usually trade the downside, as I don't like the chance of being caught in a negative interest income position, but with Bernanke on the microphone, I just couldn't resist.I also had some very well behaving trend lines on the 1hr and the 5min charts.

AUDJPY Stop Losses Hit

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Well, positions entered overnight and this morning have now been stopped out. We are approaching the SMA-50 (simple moving average over fifty measurements) at approximately 96.37 and we are likely to enter a buying zone soon.Obviously, the risk is that it won't bounce, or worse, that it will bounce, give us false confidence, and then fall like a rock.In any case, I'll be taking small chunks with